Automotive and parts industry: car electricization and intelligent steadily advance
This week's industry opinion update was exposed to the diesel vehicle emission of the German car company Volkswagen. The problems of Japanese car companies Mitsubishi and Suzuki's emissions and fuel consumption exceeded the standard, and the electrification trend will be further strengthened. Intelligent two leading faucets Mobileye and Bosch are moving frequently to consolidate their leading position in the industry. However, industry progress cannot be achieved overnight. Considering the slowdown in production and sales growth and structural overcapacity, we continue to give the industry a “neutral” rating.
Next week, we will focus on the target. We recommend that we continue to focus on the stable growth and strong investment security margin next week. We will focus on Xingyu, Huasheng Technology and Bei Te Technology. In addition, we continue to recommend focusing on the short-term performance is difficult to reflect but the long-term business development direction is highly in line with the industry's development trend of the target, the focus is recommended to focus on Keliyuan.
This week's auto and parts industry review The auto and auto parts industry index rose slightly by 0.31% this week, and has been ranked midstream in various industries for several weeks. The sub-sectors showed mixed performance, with the passenger car industry index down 1.08%; the commercial vehicle industry index up 0.73%; the auto parts sub-sector up 1.17%; and the car sales and service sub-sector down 0.07%. Since the beginning of the year, the auto and auto parts industry index has fallen by 19.96%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the GEM, but underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index. Among them, the passenger car industry index fell 12.41%; the commercial vehicle industry index fell 17.36%; the auto parts sub-sector fell 22.39%; the car sales and service sub-sector fell 31.57%. In terms of volume, the trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange has fallen sharply this week, and the trading volume of the ChiNext has rebounded slightly. The volume of the auto and parts industry fell sharply this week, and the market's attention to the industry declined.
The valuation of the automotive and parts industry has been emerging. From the perspective of P/E in each sub-sector, the passenger car industry has been relatively stable, and the current valuation level is a reasonable range; although the commercial vehicle industry experienced a sharp decline, it is estimated The value is still significantly higher than the average of the past three years; under the expectation of automotive electrification and intelligence, the auto parts sub-sector is rapidly increasing its valuation and is close to twice the average valuation level before 2015; vehicle sales and services The valuation of sub-industries has repeatedly fluctuated sharply, and the current valuation is higher than other sub-sectors. From the perspective of P/S in each sub-sector, the passenger car industry and the automobile sales and service sub-sector have entered a historically reasonable valuation range; the commercial vehicle industry is promoted by the new energy vehicle policy, and the valuation is still at a high level in the past three years. Under the expectation of automobile electrification and intelligence, the auto parts sub-industry has improved its valuation in the past year. The valuation level has been significantly higher than the average level since 2011, even close to twice the lowest point. From the perspective of P/B in various sub-sectors, the automotive and sales and service sub-sectors of the passenger car industry and commercial vehicle industry are in a historically reasonable valuation range; the auto parts sub-sector is expected to be near the motorization and intelligence of automobiles. The valuation has improved rapidly in the past year, and the valuation level has been significantly higher than the average level since 2011, reaching 1.5 times the lowest point.
After Mitsubishi Suzuki re-explosive fuel consumption cheating After Mitsubishi admitted fuel consumption cheating in April, Suzuki investigated the internal test methods, and the survey results showed that the method did not meet the Japanese national standards. However, the company did not deliberately tamper with the data to improve fuel economy results. The improper test method has been in use since 2010, involving a total of 2.1 million vehicles for 16 models, and the affected models are only sold in Japan. Suzuki retested the above models using a test method that complies with Japanese regulations. The test results show that the new readings are not too different from the previously submitted readings, so it is planned to continue to sell the vehicles. The market has become very sensitive due to the Mitsubishi scandal, even if Mitsubishi does not manipulate the data, it has a significant impact on the stock price.
The Ministry of Environmental Protection solicited the light vehicle country six emission standards. The General Office of the Ministry of Environmental Protection organized research and drafted the "light vehicle pollutant emission limit and measurement side".
Law (China's sixth phase), and issued a letter on the solicitation of national environmental protection standards "light vehicle pollutant emission limits and measurement methods (China's sixth phase) (draft for comments), I hope that all relevant units will study and propose Written comments will be sent back before June 13, 2016. This standard specifies the requirements and confirmation of the sixth stage type inspection of light vehicle pollutant discharge, production consistency and inspection and determination methods for compliance. Light vehicles in the standard refer to M1, M2 and N1 vehicles with a maximum total mass of not more than 3,500 kg. The M1 class refers to a passenger car that includes no more than nine seats, including the driver's seat. The M2 class refers to a passenger car that includes more than nine seats, including the driver's seat, and has a maximum design total mass of no more than 5000 kg. The N1 class refers to a truck with a maximum design total mass of not more than 3,500 kg.
In 2019, Mobileye will provide two automakers with autonomous driving system autopilot technology and autonomous driving components. Mobileye has reached an agreement with two automakers to provide a fully automated vehicle system for the latter in 2019. However, Mobileye declined to disclose the name of the car company that signed the agreement. Mobileye currently offers automakers many components and software, including emergency brake assist systems or lane departure warning systems. The 2019 agreement is to enable the vehicle to autopilot on any road. In order to make autonomous vehicles possible, there is still a need to improve components in some respects.
Bosch's strategy in China: Focus on investment Autopilot Bosch Group has released a new strategy in China: In the future, it will actively expand emerging businesses in the four major areas of connected transportation, connected industries, smart homes and smart cities. Last year, Bosch officially changed its name to the automotive and intelligent transportation technology business unit of the largest business unit. This means that Bosch is not only limited to automotive technology, but also provides products, technologies and services for the entire intelligent transportation industry. A systematic and innovative solution. Bosch is working hard to transform the car into a driver's smart assistant, not just a mobility tool. To this end, Bosch will connect with the Internet, peripheral equipment and other vehicles, in the future, such as retrograde warning, fully automatic parking, automatic emergency call rescue, intelligent human-computer interaction and other vehicle interconnection and automatic driving functions will be Can be achieved. At present, Bosch's main development direction is the communication module between the vehicle and the outside world, system application and information acquisition and how to make driving safer.
The risk suggests that the macro economy continues to decline, the industry's technological progress is not up to expectations, the policy is not up to expectations, and the investment market is hot and the consumption is delayed.